The pieces are coming together for a landslide victory like the Democrats haven't seen since Johnson won the presidency in 1964. The Election Ninja is still predicting a Democrat landslide in the 2020 US Presidential Election. The most amazing part is that the gap is getting wider - not narrower - in favor of a Democrat victory. The Election Ninja is watching Trump's approval ratings continue to fall. Combine that with his inability to get support from the Republican Party on issues such as healthcare, and things are starting to look really bad.
Just how bad? The last president to have approval ratings this low was President Bush in 2008. In that year's election, Obama won the popular vote with a 7% margin, and he won the electoral college with a whopping 36% margin. Oddly, Obama also had the lowest approval rating of any President who won re-election. Obama's approval rating during the 2012 election was only 48%. Trump's approval rating as of today is only 36%.
The real question is, "Can Trump recover enough to win re-election in 2020?" He can, but it will be very difficult. Trump has a few demographic advantages. One is the migration of Democrats out of rural areas and into large cities. While this doesn't affect the popular vote, it does affect the electoral college. The electoral college's vote counts take into consideration the population of each state, but votes are also granted for each state in equal proportion just like they are in the Senate. And this is where demographics favor a Republican victory. Let's say the popular vote was split 50/50. In today's demographics, even with a 50/50 popular vote, most of the Democrat votes would come from a few states with large cities, while the majority of states would vote Republican. What that means is that taking into consideration the realities of the Electoral College, Democrats actually need about 53% of the popular vote to win an Election, while Republicans only need about 47% of the popular vote.
Another area where the Republicans are favored is in third party votes. While the Libertarian party seems to pull votes away from Democrats and Republicans equally, the Green party pulls votes away from Democrats almost exclusively. The Election Ninja is predicting that the Green party will win 2% of the popular vote in 2020. That means the Republicans now only need about 45% of the popular vote to win, while the Democrats need nearly 55% of the popular vote to win.
So is it possible for the Republicans to gather 45% of the popular vote in 2020 and win the election? Yes. Approval ratings are only one factor in determining the winner of an election. And while Trump's approval ratings are dismally low at only 36%, there are still plenty of die hard Republicans who dis-approve of Trump, but will still vote for him simply because he's a Republican. The question is, "Are there enough die hard Republicans who dis-approve of Trump to make up the 9% difference?"
The Election Ninja has issued his first 2020 election prediction. The Election Ninja is predicting that the 2020 US Presidential election will be a landslide victory for the Democrats. If the election were held today, the Democrats would win with 51% of the popular vote. The Republicans would pick up 43% of the popular vote, with the Libertarian Party picking up 5%, and the Green Party picking up 2%. (Numbers do not add up to 100% due to statistical rounding).
The Election Ninja also predicts that the Democrats will win the Electoral College. The Election Ninja's prediction algorithm is not sophisticated enough to provide a prediction on the Electoral College vote count, but he is working hard to predict an exact count of Electoral College votes.
The Election Ninja has correctly predicted the outcome of the US Presidential election 94% of the time over the past 64 years. Our prediction for the 2020 election will start once President-Elect Trump starts receiving approval ratings.
The secret to the Election Ninja's success is that he does not take election prediction polls into consideration. Election prediction polls are notoriously wrong, as evidenced by the 2016 election. Instead, the Election Ninja uses statistical algorithms based upon historical election data to predict the outcome of elections. The Election Ninja's current prediction algorithm, developed in 2016, was tested on every election since the United States implemented a two term limit. The prediction algorithm correctly predicted the outcome 94% of the time.
The Election Ninja is the brainchild of Scott Curry. Scott Curry is a web developer with over 20 years of experience who currently works at a major daily newspaper.
The Election Ninja's immediate goal is to scrape as much open source data as possible in order to provide live election results for major US elections. The election results will not be based upon any polls or opinions. The Election Ninja will not "call" any races. Instead, the Election Ninja will be providing raw results in an easy to understand format with automated calculations for the likelihood of each candidate winning an election. These calculations will also be combined to provide a visual of the likelihood of each candidate winning the overall popular vote and electoral college vote. You won't have to wait for a news station to "call" a state. You'll be able to view the raw results right here, and make your own determination as to who is going to win the election.
Each state will be given a ranking by percent likelihood for a particular candidate to win, rather than calling a state one way or the other. For example, a state might show a light blue color if a Democrat has a 60% chance of winning. The blue color will get darker the closer to 100% the outcome becomes. National results will take into consideration the percentage chance each candidate has of winning. For example, if a state provides 10 electoral votes, and the Republican candidate has a 60% chance of winning the state, and the Democrate has a 40% chance of winning the state, then we will show all 10 electoral votes going to the Republican, but we will also show the confidence as low, since the race is still close.
Aside from live election results, the Election Ninja is also building and improving his own prediction algorithm, starting with US Presidential popular and electoral college predictions, and eventually adding US Senate and House congressional predictions.
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